Real Gross Domestic Product

Model: ARIMA(0,2,2)

Coefficients:

• Moving Average 1

  • • Estimate: -1.1280

    • Standard Error: 0.0582

• Moving Average 2

  • • Estimate: 0.1507

    • Standard Error: 0.0577

Residual Variance: 21956

Model Fit Metrics:

• BIC: 4035.77

• AICc: 4024.6

Forecast Values (in Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars):

• 2025 

  • • Q4: 24123

• 2026 

  • • Q1: 24242

    • Q2: 24361

    • Q3: 24480

    • Q4: 24599

• 2027 

  • • Q1: 24718

    • Q2: 24837

    • Q3: 24956

    • Q4: 25075

Model: ETS(M,A,N)

Coefficients:

• Alpha (level): 0.9998999

• Beta (trend): 0.02960784

• Level (l₀): 2164.296

• Trend (b₀): 22.79096

Residual Variance: 0.0001

Model Fit Metrics:

• BIC: 4684.974

• AICc: 4666.406
  
  

Forecast Values (in Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars):

• 2025 

  • • Q4: 24149

• 2026 

  • • Q1: 24271

    • Q2: 24394

    • Q3: 24516

    • Q4: 24638

• 2027 

  • • Q1: 24760

    • Q2: 24883

    • Q3: 25005

    • Q4: 25127