Real Gross Domestic Product

Model: ARIMA(0,2,2)

Coefficients:

• Moving Average 1

  • • Estimate: -1.1316

    • Standard Error: 0.0581

• Moving Average 2

  • • Estimate: 0.1530

    • Standard Error: 0.0576

Residual Variance: 22049

Model Fit Metrics:

• BIC: 4024.31

• AICc: 4013.16

Forecast Values (in Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars):

• 2025 

  • • Q3: 23808

    • Q4: 23921

• 2026 

  • • Q1: 24034

    • Q2: 24148

    • Q3: 24261

    • Q4: 24374

• 2027 

  • • Q1: 24487

    • Q2: 24600

    • Q3: 24713

    • Q4: 24827

Model: ETS(M,A,N)

Coefficients:

• Alpha (level): 0.9998997

• Beta (trend): 0.02912477

• Level (l₀): 2164.283

• Trend (b₀): 22.82741

Residual Variance: 0.0001

Model Fit Metrics:

• BIC: 4668.780

• AICc: 4650.228
  
  

Forecast Values (in Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars):

• 2025 

  • • Q3: 23820

    • Q4: 23937

• 2026 

  • • Q1: 24053

    • Q2: 24169

    • Q3: 24286

    • Q4: 24402

• 2027 

  • • Q1: 24519

    • Q2: 24635

    • Q3: 24751

    • Q4: 24868