Unemployment Rate

Data obtained from The St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Databasehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Most Recent Observation (August 2025): 4.3

Model: ARIMA(1,1,1)

Coefficients:

Autoregressive 1
- - Estimate: -0.7733
  - Standard Error: 0.1044
Moving Average 1
- - Estimate: 0.8285
  - Standard Error: 0.0915

Residual Variance: 0.1711

Model Fit Metrics:

BIC: 1017.09
AICc: 1002.6

Forecast Values (Percent):

2025
- - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30
2026
- - Jan: 4.30
  - Feb: 4.30
  - Mar: 4.30
  - Apr: 4.30
  - May: 4.30
  - Jun: 4.30
  - Jul: 4.30
  - Aug: 4.30
  - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30
2027
- - Jan: 4.30
  - Feb: 4.30
  - Mar: 4.30
  - Apr: 4.30
  - May: 4.30
  - Jun: 4.30
  - Jul: 4.30
  - Aug: 4.30
  - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30

Model: ETS(A,N,N)

Coefficients:

Alpha (level): 0.9998999
Level (l₀): 3.400013

Residual Variance: 0.1722

Model Fit Metrics:

BIC: 4751.687
AICc: 4737.201

Forecast Values (Percent):

2025
- - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30
2026
- - Jan: 4.30
  - Feb: 4.30
  - Mar: 4.30
  - Apr: 4.30
  - May: 4.30
  - Jun: 4.30
  - Jul: 4.30
  - Aug: 4.30
  - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30
2027
- - Jan: 4.30
  - Feb: 4.30
  - Mar: 4.30
  - Apr: 4.30
  - May: 4.30
  - Jun: 4.30
  - Jul: 4.30
  - Aug: 4.30
  - Sep: 4.30
  - Oct: 4.30
  - Nov: 4.30
  - Dec: 4.30

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