Unemployment Rate

Data obtained from The St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Databasehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Most Recent Observation (December 2025): 4.4

Model: ARIMA(1,1,1)

Coefficients:

Autoregressive 1
- - Estimate: -0.7671
  - Standard Error: 0.1067
Moving Average 1
- - Estimate: 0.8213
  - Standard Error: 0.0942

Residual Variance: 0.1706

Model Fit Metrics:

BIC: 1019.39
AICc: 1004.9

Forecast Values (Percent):

2026
- - Jan: 4.39
  - Feb: 4.40
  - Mar: 4.39
  - Apr: 4.39
  - May: 4.39
  - Jun: 4.39
  - Jul: 4.39
  - Aug: 4.39
  - Sep: 4.39
  - Oct: 4.39
  - Nov: 4.39
  - Dec: 4.39
2027
- - Jan: 4.39
  - Feb: 4.39
  - Mar: 4.39
  - Apr: 4.39
  - May: 4.39
  - Jun: 4.39
  - Jul: 4.39
  - Aug: 4.39
  - Sep: 4.39
  - Oct: 4.39
  - Nov: 4.39
  - Dec: 4.39

Model: ETS(A,N,N)

Coefficients:

Alpha (level): 0.9998999
Level (l₀): 3.400013

Residual Variance: 0.1717

Model Fit Metrics:

BIC: 4772.969
AICc: 4758.470

(Note: October 2025 observation interpolated to address missing value)

Forecast Values (Percent):

2026
- - Jan: 4.40
  - Feb: 4.40
  - Mar: 4.40
  - Apr: 4.40
  - May: 4.40
  - Jun: 4.40
  - Jul: 4.40
  - Aug: 4.40
  - Sep: 4.40
  - Oct: 4.40
  - Nov: 4.40
  - Dec: 4.40
2027
- - Jan: 4.40
  - Feb: 4.40
  - Mar: 4.40
  - Apr: 4.40
  - May: 4.40
  - Jun: 4.40
  - Jul: 4.40
  - Aug: 4.40
  - Sep: 4.40
  - Oct: 4.40
  - Nov: 4.40
  - Dec: 4.40

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